Retired, Provincial, Europhile The Typical Profile Of The Voter In The Primary Right

Voters certain to vote in the primary are mostly older and have a shift in the company's vision with the rest of the population, according to a study. They are the ones who could appoint the next president.


Who will vote on 20 and 27 November, the first and second rounds of the primary of the right and center? The question on everyone's lips for months and response largely depends on the outcome of the election.

If we speak a lot of undecided notably among them potential left-wing voters, it looks less on the case of voters who themselves are certain to vote.




Their sociology is however very instructive. The rich investigation of the subject by the Foundation for Political Innovation (Fondapol), presented Tuesday, November 15 at the House of Polytechnique in Paris highlights three features that are important: people aged 65 and over 41% of some voters to vote Sunday, against only 14% for 18-34 year olds; pensioners make up 48% of the electorate, when employees and workers account for only 17%; and a majority of those voters live in urban towns of province.

The typical profile of some voters to participate in the primary - a retiree over 65 years living in a provincial town - is not neutral. It directly influences the expectations cited in opinion polls. Thus, among these voters, the issues that count "many" are in their vote, 78% of them, the fight against terrorism, the fight against unemployment and the revival of economic activity (72%), the fight against crime (69%) and the ability to reduce the influence of Islam (63%).

The investigation of the Fondapol also emphasizes three characteristics common to these constituents and reflect a worldview and society significantly different from the rest of the population: they are thus 59% believe that globalization is a good thing for France (against 47% for all respondents), 60% think that Europe is a source of hope (against 49% for all respondents), and above 89% consider that the state should give more freedom to entrepreneurs - plain to lay off more easily (against 72% for all respondents).

Finally, some 10% of these voters to vote in the primary of the right and center come from the left and 11% of the National Front.

"The primary accentuates the cuts of our society in vertiginous proportions"

All these data help explain why the seven candidates in the primary of the right and center have each in liberal hype, or why others have focused on themes and positions dear to the far right .




But they raise a fundamental question above was notably pointed at the presentation of the survey on Tuesday night by Jerome Jaffré, Director of the Center studies and knowledge on public opinion (Cecop): the candidate who win this primary he has democratic legitimacy?

"While society is already divided between the popular classes and elites, on the one hand, and between the seniors and the other young, primary accentuates these cuts dizzying proportions, says the political scientist. Categories Popular are present in half the electorate of their primary national average and retirees alone represent half of the voters. But how do you as political programs presented by the candidates can treat problems that affect the the entire population once the electorate is overwhelmingly made up of retirees? There is a real problem of democracy. "

The problem is particularly glaring for 2017. The winner of the primary of the right and center will be the favorite to become the next president, according to almost all polls. This means that it would be for the expression of a minority that would, according to Jerome Jaffré that 3-4% of the total electorate.