On this day of presidential election, many will have their eyes on the US. In Marrakech too. Negotiators for the COP 22 will hold their breath as the voting result may depend on the success of the COP, to the extent that the Republican candidate Donald Trump has promised in case of victory, leaving the Paris agreement signed year ago and ratified last September by Barack Obama.
If Donald Trump were elected, because the climate would lose one of its key allies. A recent ally, certainly, we remember that former President George Bush had not ratified the Kyoto Protocol, but a strong ally. The United States is more than 12% of global emissions of greenhouse gases.
Concretely, what would happen? A withdrawal of the United States of the Paris agreement as Donald Trump has promised. But since between time Barack Obama ratified the text and that it entered into force, the Republican candidate should wait at least three years before officially slam the door. However, nothing prevents the meantime, as he announced to return to some key measures of Barack Obama for the climate. For example deregulating shale gas or canceling the closure of several coal plants.
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This could have a ripple effect. If the United States does not respect themselves the Paris commitments, other countries could be deterred. What would China for example, who acted hand in hand with the United States on this issue in recent months? Experts wonder and in this context there is a safe bet that very few concrete commitments will be made in Marrakech, as the Trump mortgage will not be lifted.
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