"After the victory of Donald Trump in the US, it is seen as the last defender of certain values," assures the daily Die Welt . The Chancellor represents, according to the newspaper, the best defense to block the progression of populist ideas.
Merkel backed Obama
An analysis shared by several German media. It is all the more relevant that Barack Obama, the outgoing US president, has clearly called for support to Angela Merkel politically (as she had not yet decided on her possible candidacy) during her visit to Berlin on Thursday 17 November. An output that, in the political context in the US, was seen as a warning message against the extreme temptation of populist speeches.
But Thorsten Winkelmann, German political scientist at the Policy Research Institute of Nuremberg, contacted by France 24, the argument of the last defense against the rise of extremism mainly falls within the electoral posture. "This way of presenting Germany as the country of stability embodied by Angela Merkel surrounded by states such as Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States and, perhaps, France tomorrow, tempted by the sirens populist, makes a perfect electoral script, "he says.
"The truth is that without Angela Merkel, the CDU is nothing," said the expert. According to him, the Christian Democratic Party pushed the Chancellor to represent to avoid a political vacuum. "There are currently no dolphins Wolfgang Schable [the finance minister] is too old and Horst Seehofer [the Minister President of Bavaria, Ed] is Bavarian, which disqualifies the office with the electorate of much of the rest of Germany, "said Thorsten Winkelmann.
The "social-democratization" of the CDU
Eleven years of "merkelisme" also affected the traditional ideological baggage of the German conservatives. "She made a 'social-democratic', that is to say a position more in the center left, of the CDU," said the political scientist. The commitment of the energy transition, the policy of welcoming refugees, the establishment of a minimum wage: all of which run counter to the political culture of his party. In the eyes of the CDU, only the popularity of Angela Merkel will hide the disappearance of major traditional ideological markers of the German right.
This focus also offers an electoral advantage deprive the German political space left. "The SPD [Social Democratic center-left] has lost some of the popular vote after the economic reforms undertaken by former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and has not managed to get out of the image of a party that looks right, "said Thorsten Winkelmann. The two main political parties therefore mutually walk on their respective policies flowerbeds. In this game, the CDU has an advantage: it has Angela Merkel, while the champion of the SPD, Sigmar Gabriel, "is our François Hollande to us in terms of popularity," political scientist dares.
The main danger for Angela Merkel comes from the Alternative für Deutschland (AFD), the German anti-immigrant party. Its president, Frauke Petry, has made "Merkel bashing" one of his favorite sports with obvious electoral success . His message: Angela Merkel is at the origin of the generous policy of welcoming refugees, the source of all the ills of Germany.
"Part of the blame Germans perhaps Angela Merkel for this policy, but the positions of the Chancellor are shared by other leaders of the CDU," said Thorsten Winkelmann. There is therefore no alternative candidate in the Conservative party that would be acceptable to voters of the AFD. Supporters Angela Merkel bet, explains the political scientist, the fact that Germany remains faithful to its tradition of "not loving, unlike France, the experiments" as a vote support of AFD.
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